Lancet Commission identifies 17 interlinked threats to global health through 2100
Launch at the World Health Summit announced on 11 October 2026.
The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health, launched at the World Health Summit 2026 in Berlin, identifies 17 interlinked threats that pose the greatest danger to human health between 2025 and 2100. It draws on analysis of 204 countries and territories by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
What happened
The Commission, co-chaired by Professor Christopher Murray of IHME and Dr Natalia Kanem, former Executive Director of UNFPA, examined hundreds of possible threats. It selected 17 that could each account for at least one billion disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by 2100, that can be modelled with available data, and that leave room for policy action.
The threats span disease, social and economic conditions, environmental change, technology and conflict. Among the estimates in the release: income inequality accounts for about 13.8 billion avoidable DALYs, obesity 23.1 billion and educational attainment 16.1 billion, while limiting warming to around 1.8°C rather than 4.4°C could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life being lost. The Commission treats nuclear conflict and malicious use of AI as low-likelihood threats with the potential for extinction.
It sets out three recommendations: build threat-ready health systems, increase investment in breakthrough innovation, and strengthen monitoring of emerging risks.
Why it matters
This is a global health development rather than a mental health study. Its relevance to mental health is indirect: economic strain, inequality, conflict and environmental change are conditions in which mental health needs shift. The release notes that its climate estimate leaves out harder-to-measure effects, including mental health impacts.
The Commission’s figures are modelled best-case and worst-case scenarios, not forecasts that particular events will happen, and the burden will differ between and within countries.